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Scientists Have Already Attributed Pakistan’s Extreme 2022 Monsoon to Climate Change

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A new report says climate change and the legacy of British colonial rule have contributed to the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Pakistan.

The monsoon season in Pakistan in 2022 was very devastating 1,545 people 552 children were killed Last updated From the country’s National Disaster Management Authority. Tens of millions were displaced by the resulting floods, which at one time covered them more than a third from the country.

It is a disaster of the greatest magnitude. Although Pakistan has faced widespread devastating rains and floods beforeAnd the Prime Minister Call Shahbaz Sharif The ongoing flooding is “the worst in the history of Pakistan”.

right Now , international 25 . group Scientists say we can also formally call monsoons and floods a climate change disaster. Design comes in Report From Refer the weather in the worlda global collaborative climate science project.

In their analysis of this year’s monsoon season, the The researchers found that its severity was likely severely exacerbated by human-caused climate change. Specifically, rising global temperatures have increased precipitation by about 50%. And the situation worsened In the southern provinces of the country, an estimated 75%.

The scientists further determined that rainfall of this magnitude can now be expected to be once every 100 years in Pakistan, given the current level of climate change (ie 1.2°C of warming). With only 0.8°C of additional heat, the authors noted, “precipitation would increase dramatically.”

Pictures of tents in the relief camp

More than 33 million people have been displaced by the floods, and Pakistan’s National Disaster Management Authority said more than 1.7 million homes were completely destroyed.
picture: guide bit (AP)

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“We have very big doubts,” he said. see philipa climate scientist at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute and co-author of the attribution study, at Interview With indoor climate news. “But based on observations and models together, and combining that with our theoretical knowledge, we now find that it is likely that climate change has a role.”

In the Immediately after a disasterThere is usually not enough data to link a file A specific climate change event. Scientists have mountains of research supporting general trends, but it can be Difficult to evaluate with confidence If and how climate change contributed to any hurricane, rainstorm, or drought – all of it It happened before the advent of fossil fuels.

It requires a lot of modeling and analysissister to elicit the effects of climate change from stochastic variability, to arrive at formal attribution, and Select Effects. But these selections Come faster than everas extreme weather events are becoming increasingly common and science advances.

In fact, in the case of current heat wavesa previous study of global weather attribution concluded that everyone It is now directly attributable to climate change in some way.

In the case of Pakistan, enormous heat wave in spring In South Asia is part of what Help pave the way awful summer monsoons. The atmosphere could contain more water than usual, and the soil (especially in the arid south) was dry, depleted and left unabsorbable.NT due to drought.

TInjustice extends Beyond the disproportionate climatic influences. The country’s propensity for flooding was also exacerbated by the legacy of British colonialism. For example, under British rule, Lowland areas have been drained and developed for farmland, according to an Inside Climate News report.

When taking all of these factors together, it is important to remember that the disaster was the result of weakness that had been built up over a number of years,” Ayesha Siddiqi, who is a Cambridge University geographer and co-author of the report, told the outlet. “It should not be seen from a non-historical perspective as the result of just one type of sudden or intermittent weather event.

The ability to quickly and accurately attribute disaster to climate change could help keep the needle going general anxietyLegal empowerment of survivors Fighting for compensationor even convert a file The tides of global politics. And even if you don’t do any of that, we can at least now determine how far swathes of humans have come. is tightened From fossil fuel addiction from Much smaller group.

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